USD/JPY Today's Market Analysis
【Daily Chart】
【4-Hour Chart】
Daily Chart
The USD has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year, with two bullish candles confirmed.
However, the overall trend is still downward, and there is still a possibility of the USD becoming bearish from a fundamental perspective.
Therefore, it is possible that some buying back of the sold positions from the end of the year is taking place.
However, from a technical perspective, the trend line of the resistance line, 10EMA, and middle line have all been exceeded, so there is a possibility that the short-term outlook will be firm.
Looking at the daily chart technically, it is more likely to be supported around 143.00 yen to 142.95 yen, where the middle line is located, rather than "sideways to upward".
If it falls below the middle line, the next support point will be around 142.70 yen to 142.60 yen, and if it falls below this level, it will be in selling mode!
If it rises from the lower point and exceeds 143.20 yen, it will be around 143.40 yen, 143.80 yen to 143.90 yen, and how long the dip-buying will continue is the question.
4-Hour Chart
The Bollinger Band has expanded and reached near +3σ in the flow of the third wave, but the upper side has become heavy and the upper shadow bearish candle has been confirmed.
Therefore, even if the current candle rises, it is better to attack considering the possibility of becoming heavy and bearish around 143.50 yen, where +2σ is located, rather than "sideways to downward".
The support point for the lower side is around 142.75 yen to 142.70 yen, where +1σ and 10EMA are located, if it falls naturally.
60-Minute Chart
After the rise, the upper side became heavy and the price declined, and it is located below 10EMA, so the short-term outlook is "sideways to downward".
If it falls below the middle line of 142.95 yen to 142.90 yen, it will be a support point.
If it falls below this level, the next support point will be around 142.80 yen and 142.50 yen.
If it rebounds near the middle line and exceeds 10EMA, and the candle is confirmed, buying is likely to start again.
The strategy for the Tokyo market is as follows: The fundamental forecast for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) suggests that the inflation rate has returned to the target of 2% on an annual basis.
This suggests that the Federal Reserve Board's (FRB) inflation suppression target has also temporarily come to a halt.
The outlook for a rate cut has strengthened for next year.
The yen is expected to be strong for the rest of the year, and selling on the rebound is likely to be dominant.
In 2024, the yen is slightly rebounding and depreciating.
The monthly chart has also changed, and it is a development where it is trying to return slightly and search for where to resume selling.
At the beginning of the year, the movement to buy the USD is dominant, and the USD/JPY is in a situation where it is recovering in the 143 yen range.
The US bond yield is also rising, and it is reversing against the decline at the end of the year.
Today’s USD/JPY Forecast
The FRB is expected to move toward a rate cut, so the yen is expected to appreciate and end the year.
At the beginning of the year, the USD is expected to be bought slightly, and the yen is expected to depreciate.
I don't think it will continue to rise like this.
Since the 4-hour and 60-minute charts are "sideways to downward", it is a difficult situation, but there is a high possibility of dip-buying, and if it does not fall sharply, it seems to be heading for an upward trend again.
Therefore, it is important to be aware of the support points and necklines and attack them firmly.
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