USD/JPY Today's Market Analysis
【Daily Chart】
【4-Hour Chart】
Daily Chart
On the daily chart, the predominance of dollar buying continued with another bullish candlestick securing yesterday.
Today, if the Bollinger Bands’ +1 standard deviation (around 144.50 yen) and the baseline (around 144.40 yen) hold as a support, we can expect a ‘steady to bullish’ outlook, possibly aiming for the 145 yen range.
Even if it dips below the baseline, we'll watch to see if it's supported near 144.00 yen or the mid-143 yen range!
4-Hour Chart
Looking at the 4-hour chart, both Bollinger Bands and the moving average are trending upward, suggesting a buyers' market.
Even though there was a significant rise yesterday, some adjustment seems likely.
However, given the context of the daily chart, a high stop and continued rise seem probable, maintaining a ‘steady to bullish’ perspective.
Watch if support kicks in between 144.05 to 144.00 yen, near the +1 standard deviation and the 10 EMA!
60-Minute Chart
In the 60-minute chart, with the Bollinger Bands and moving average trending upward - favoring buyers - and with modest selling post-rise, the robust support at the 10 EMA - located around 144.50 yen - is in focus for continued ascent.
Keeping a ‘steady to bullish’ view, if the price dips below the 10 EMA, attention should be on whether the middle line, 25-day line, or the baseline provide sufficient support to maintain the uptrend.
Tokyo Time Strategy Fundamental Forecast
Continuation of dollar-buying strength.
Increase in U.S. bond yields.
U.S. ADP employment statistics outperformed market expectations at 164,000, indicating strong employment.
Further dollar buying/
The speculation over the Bank of Japan lifting its negative interest rate has receded since the New Year’s earthquake in the Noto Peninsula.
The situation looks to extend past April!?.
These are also factors contributing to yen weakening.
Fundamentally, a short-term trend favored yen weakness is prevailing.
Today’s USD/JPY Forecast
Technically, the higher timeframes indicate ‘steady to bullish.
Pragmatically, looking for buy opportunities at lower levels appears sensible.
The question is how high will it rise? At what timing and to what extent?
That will be the focus moving forward.
If support holds around 144.50 to 144.40 yen and it climbs, the initial target is near 144.65 yen, followed by 144.70 yen.
Surpassing this level, we aim for the recent peak around 144.85 yen, if there is no pullback selling, up to around 145.00 yen.
At this point, be cautious of pullback selling before continuing to ride the high and move towards 145.10 yen, and then from 145.20 to 145.25 yen.
If it dips below around 145.50 yen, we'll watch for possible pullback selling.
If it falls below around 145.40 yen, support scrutiny will be around the 144.30 yen mark, followed by 144.10 yen, and around 144.05 to 144.00 yen.
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