Today's Market Analysis
[Daily Chart]
[4-Hour Chart]
Strategy for Tokyo Time, Fundamental Forecast: Overall, we are in a downtrend. The strengthened following remarks about a change in the Bank of Japan's policy interest rates. However, the U.S. employment statistics exceeded market expectations, leading to dollar buying and thus weakening the . The also weakened when the Bank of Japan stated there would be no cancellation of negative interest rates in December, resulting in a market responsive to such news. Such conditions often precede a trend change! The U.S. CPI slightly exceeded expectations, prompting dollar buying, but there were also sell-offs, leading to a sideways movement around 145. This week is notable for numerous announcements of policy interest rates from various countries.
Daily Chart
A bearish candle was confirmed yesterday due to dominant selling on the rebound, which continues the downward trend. Today, the sentiment remains 'bearish from a sideways pattern,' and on the lower frames, there is a focus on selling on the rebound. If we look at the daily chart, the downside targets are around 145.00, yesterday's low around 144.70, and near the Bollinger Bands’ -2σ point at around 144.20. Moreover, if there is a rise, the upper targets would be around 145.80 to 145.90.
4-Hour Chart
After dropping to around 144.70, it has rebounded, but upside resistance is looming, suggesting a possible lowering of the high. As of this morning, there's slight support at the middle line trending upwards, with resistance at the 10 EMA around 145.55 and support near the middle line at 145.20. A break below this point could signal a shift to sell mode with significant potential for extension, as we are near the apex of a symmetrical triangle.
60-Minute Chart
The Bollinger Bands are quite squeezed, indicating that a move may be imminent. The moving averages are trending downwards, and as of 8 A.M., they are below the middle line, suggesting a 'bearish from sideways' trend. Additionally, prices are caught in a triangular consolidation with a ceiling around 145.55 and a floor around 145.30. A break below approximately 145.30 could trigger stronger selling pressure.
Today’s USD/JPY Forecast
Given that we are in a downtrend on the daily chart, the outlook remains 'bearish from a sideways pattern.' The 4-hour chart could still show resilience at the middle line, while the 60-minute chart is more inclined to bearishness, with selling pressure after 8 A.M. During Tokyo hours, the target is to capitalize on the selling on the rebound.
Breaking below 145.30 may lead to targets around 145.20, the 145.05 to 145.00 range, and if selling intensifies without buy-backs, a downward push below 144.75 to 144.70, and possibly down to the daily Bollinger Band's -2σ at around 144.20. If the trend reverses upwards, and we surpass 145.50, selling on the rebound would be re-evaluated, with potential levels at around 145.60 ,145.80,145.90, and at the daily -1σ around 146.00. Tonight, the U.S. FOMC announcement is due, so there may be a watchful mood in the market during the day until the FOMC release. If the movements become minimal, it would be prudent to refrain from trading and observe the situation.
USD/JPY Today's Forecasted Range
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