Today's Market Analysis
[Daily Chart]
[4-hour Chart]
Based on fundamentals, we are expecting a phase of buy-backs during Tokyo hours, leading to a situation where the ceiling is heavy but the market is holding steady. Around 16:40, there was a speech by a Bank of Japan (BOJ) official that caused the USD/JPY and cross- pairs to rise. The content included comments such as "No rush to lift negative interest rates this month," indicating that the BOJ does not see the need to quickly change its policy. Considering that the approximately 6 decline the other day was due to speculations about the BOJ changing its policy rate and lifting negative interest rates, we can see why today’s official remarks have triggered buying in the dollar.
Daily Chart
In the daily chart, yesterday's rise due to the BOJ official's remarks tried to push the price back up, creating an upward candle. However, having reached around the 10EMA, the market has become heavier and closed with a downturn.
Today, it remains to be seen whether the upward trend from the previous days has ended or if it will continue, which could result in a sideways trading range. The movements may be erratic with periods of both increases and declines, making for a potentially confusing day. Expect a "sideways range."
Key upward points on the daily chart are around 146.15, 146.30, 146.60, and 146.70.
Key downward points are around 146.00, between 145.80 and 70, and between 145.60 and 50.
4-Hour Chart
There has been a long phase of testing a rebound, but when it reached around the +1σ of the Bollinger Bands, the resistance became heavier, and a bearish candle was established. The trendline is broken, indicating a move from "sideways to a potentially bearish outlook" for the time being. An increase back to the +1σ and the resistance line of the trendline around 146.45 will likely encounter heavy resistance. If the price falls smoothly, the key support around the 10EMA, 145.80, will be the level to watch. With wide price ranges, one would want to pay attention to points in the 60-minute or 15-minute charts in the short term.
60-Minute Chart
The candles at 7 and 8 am have settled below the middle line, suggesting a "sideways to bearish" trend. However, as Tokyo hands off to the New York market, there is a good chance that the price might rise, so it might be safer to wait and see how the Tokyo market reacts. The MACD has also shown a death cross, implying that any rise may be met with selling pressure...
Today’s USD/JPY Forecast
Today, we expect a pause in the previous day's attempt to rebound, which could lead to the beginning of a selling trend. Fundamentally, there were gains on the speculation that the BOJ might change its policy rate, but yesterday’s official statement suggested no imminent policy rate changes, potentially softening any selling pressure. However, given the daily chart is in a downward trend, the upper limit could still be an issue, suggesting today might hold in a "sideways range." This morning, the first resistance point is around 146.18, which is the 10EMA on the 60-minute chart. If it moves above that, the market might head towards 146.30, and if it surpasses that, we could see it rise to around the 10EMA of the daily chart, between 146.50 and 60. However, any further increases, unless with significant momentum, could find resistance starting around 146.70. With the 60-minute chart showing more of a "sideways to bearish" outlook, if the price struggles around 146.18 and starts to fall, the first point of support is between 146.05 and 00. If that level is breached, the next focus is around the 10EMA of the 4-hour chart between 145.80 and 70 – this will be a critical watch point for support. If the bounce is weak, we could approach 145.60 or potentially 145.50, which seems like a strong support; however, it could fall as far as around 145.30. Tonight, also keep in mind the U.S. Consumer Price Index data coming out at 10:30 PM, and be ready for significant market movements around that time.
