Today's Market Analysis
[Daily Chart]
[4-Hour Chart]
Tokyo Session Strategy
With the anticipated outcome of the U.S. FOMC meeting, there was an expectation of the rates being left unchanged this time; however, the meeting hinted at three potential rate cuts next year, leading to a reduced U.S. interest rate and an inclination towards selling U.S. dollars and buying . This morning, although the price was initially in the 143 range, selling pressure has brought it down to around 142.05 . The question is whether this dollar-selling trend will hold for the rest of the year, especially with today's announcements of policy interest rates in the UK and the Eurozone possibly causing erratic fluctuations.
Daily Chart
A notably long bearish candle confirmed yesterday, which draws attention to whether the price will test or break through the recent low near 141.60 , indicating a 'sideways to downward' outlook. However, with a rebound from around 142.05 earlier this morning, there's also a possibility for a recovery during Tokyo hours.
Given the likelihood of significant volatility today, meticulous scalping may be effective. If one can catch the wave of price movement, there could be substantial opportunities to profit. Thus, one should proceed with caution and not rush into trades.
4-Hour Chart
The Bollinger Bands, which had been quite squeezed, are showing an expansion, indicating a possible continuation of the current trend. Even if there's a rise, the upper point of resistance lies around the early 143 mark, specifically at the -2σ level. With a considerable price range in play, it'd be wise to attack the market after confirming upside and downside points on the 60-minute and 15-minute charts.
60-Minute Chart
This morning's 8 a.m. candlestick managed to climb above the Bollinger Band's -2σ level, signaling a potential test for a rebound. Although the 5-minute chart's candles have turned blue, indicating a positive change, it's a precarious situation and the Tokyo market's response should guide the trading strategy.
Today’s USD/JPY Forecast
Fundamentally, the sentiment leans towards selling U.S. dollars, and technically, the trend is downward, with a 'sideways to downward' inclination. After a drop of nearly one around 7 a.m., there's an attempt at a rebound, but the underlying trend is downward, aiming potentially for the recent low near 141.60 . There could even be a new low if the market performs poorly.
This brings the focal point to the reaction from Tokyo traders. Initial morning selling has led to a rebound test, but will that lead to a further sell-off after reaching resistance, or will a heavy cap around 142.80 cause the price to sag? It seems prudent to observe first. High volatility may provide opportunities for steady gains, so it's important to remain patient and wait for the right moment. Today's candle on the daily chart and whether it ends up bullish could prove crucial.
USD/JPY Today's Forecasted Range
Upside levels around: 142.73, 142.87, 143.00, 143.15, 143.27 to 143.30, 143.50, 143.70.
Downside levels around: 142.50 to 142.47, 142.40, 142.15, 142.05 to 142.00, 141.80, 141.65 to 141.60, 141.05 to 141.00, 140.80.
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