USD/JPY Daily Chart Analysis
Key Observations from the Daily Chart
On the daily chart, following a key Bank of Japan official's statement yesterday, overseas players reacted by selling the yen, driving the price up to around 149.50. The market was dominated by buyers, and a long bullish candle was confirmed, drawing attention to whether the trend will aim for 150. However, since the chart is extending towards just before the Bollinger Bands +2σ, I anticipate some adjustment today before proceeding further.
Resistance and Support Levels
Yesterday's high was around 149.50, where the +2σ lies, so during Tokyo hours, this could act as a resistance line, expecting some adjustment, and it's key to watch for where it finds support for a potential reversal. The basic stance is to look for buying opportunities on dips from a "sideways to bullish" perspective.
USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Analyzing the 4-Hour Price Movement
On the 4-hour chart, even with two confirmed bearish candles near the Bollinger Bands +2σ, the downward movement is reluctant, making it a challenging call. The upside appears heavy, but there's no emergence of selling, indicating a tough position for buying at high levels. Ideally, I'm waiting for a dip to around 149.00 or near the 10EMA at 148.90 before a rebound.
USD/JPY 60-Minute Chart Analysis
Short-Term Trends and Indicators
For the 60-minute chart, after the rise, there's a sideways trend above the 10EMA, which could support a further climb. However, ideally, I'd like to see a dip for an adjustment before a renewed ascent.
Tokyo Session Strategy
Impact of Bank of Japan's Remarks
Fundamental forecast: Following the dovish remarks by Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor Ueda, the yen was sold, leading to a rise in USD/JPY, reaching around the mid-149s. Despite echoing Governor Ueda's sentiments, the overseas market reacted with yen selling, bringing the 150 level back into view, suggesting a continued yen selling, dollar buying trend.
Today's Trading Outlook
Today's USD/JPY forecast: The basic strategy is to aim for buying on dips from a "sideways to bullish" stance.
Potential Trading Points
Considering yesterday's high was near the Bollinger Bands +2σ, I'm skeptical about breaking the high during Tokyo hours. Hence, I'm hoping for a short-term adjustment with a dip, targeting a buy on dips at the support levels.
Potential support levels to watch for a rebound and entry are around 149.08, 149.00, and a breakout point near 148.90.
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