USD/JPY Daily Chart Analysis
Yesterday's Candlestick and Today's Outlook
On the daily chart, yesterday confirmed a tenacious dragonfly doji candlestick, possibly due to a lack of significant news, which led to a reluctance to move lower and ultimately a buyer-dominated market. Today started above the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), so the 10 EMA around 147.80 and the middle line at about 147.60 are likely to act as support levels.
4-Hour Chart Perspective
However, the 4-hour chart leans more towards a "flat to bearish" perspective, so I won't assert a "flat to bullish" outlook on the daily chart. Instead, I'll just note the possibility of support.
USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Resistance and Potential Decline
For the 4-hour chart, even after a dead cross with the middle line, the 10 EMA has held strong, but there's a noticeable resistance overhead. The previous candlestick was bullish, but this morning's candlestick is below the downward sloping 10 EMA, suggesting the 10 EMA around 148.10 could act as a resistance line. If the price dips below around 148.00, I expect it to fall towards the 147.80 to 147.70 range.
Anticipating New Lows
Will we see a new low?
USD/JPY 60-Minute Chart Analysis
Short-Term Trends and Resistance Levels
On the 60-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands are slightly uptrending, but with lower highs, and the candlestick confirmed at 7 AM was bearish, making the 8 AM period even more resistant to gains. Therefore, the 10 EMA around 148.10 is likely to act as a resistance line, maintaining a "flat to bearish" outlook.
Strategy during Tokyo Hours
Fundamental Forecast and Market Range
The fundamental forecast suggests a lack of clear direction with a ranging situation due to the difficulty of finding new material, with a slight heaviness in the upside suggesting a pause in yen weakening. Fundamentally, we should watch whether a yen strengthening trend may emerge.
Today's USD/JPY Forecast
Technical Analysis and Selling Strategy
Technically, yesterday's daily chart closed with a bullish candle, but the 4-hour chart didn’t reach the middle line, indicating heavy resistance and a downward sloping 10 EMA (around 148.10) acting as resistance. For the short term, the "flat to bearish" outlook prevails, and on lower time frames, I'm considering aiming for selling on rallies.
Key Support Levels to Watch
If the price breaks below 148.00, watch for potential support at around 147.93, 147.80, 147.70, and 147.63, though the 60-minute Bollinger Bands are squeezing, indicating a possible range formation.
The Significance of Today's Selling Trend
If today’s market sells off, tomorrow may trend downward, so the selling situation from Tokyo to European hours will be crucial.
NY Hours and Potential for Decline
Expect a slightly bearish range, and if the rebound at the lower range is weak, we might anticipate a downturn during NY hours. However, there is currently no significant factor for a stronger yen, so the decline may be reluctant.
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