Daily Chart Analysis
On the daily chart, yesterday's candlestick was bearish but the market remained range-bound. The market might be waiting for today's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. There's no clear reason for a bullish USD trend. Will the BoJ meeting result in continued JPY weakness? Or will the market return to a JPY bullish trend? Be careful of sudden price movements from 11 AM.
Technically, two bearish candlesticks have formed at the high price range. The market is solid at the bottom, so it's a situation that requires careful observation. If the upper price is heavy, it seems reasonable to think about selling on rallies from a "sideways to bearish" perspective.
The lower price points on the daily chart are around 148.00 yen, 147.60 yen, 147.50 yen, 147.35 yen, and 147.05 to 147.00 yen. The upper price points are around 148.13 yen, 148.25 to 148.30 yen, 148.50 yen, and 148.80 yen.
4-hour Chart Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are quite squeezed, indicating a lack of direction. The upper band (+1σ) is heavy, but the price has bounced back after touching the lower band (-2σ). If the price exceeds the middle line around 148.10 yen, it seems likely to rise for a while.
However, the market is range-bound due to a lack of direction, so it's unclear how much capital will flow in from Tokyo.
60-minute Chart Analysis
On the 60-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands are sideways, indicating a range-bound market. The 7 AM candlestick was bearish and confirmed below the middle line, but the price has been rising since 8 AM. If the price rises to around 148.10 to 148.15 yen and then falls, it seems likely to sell on rallies. If it doesn't fall, it seems likely to aim for around 148.25 to 148.30 yen. This is a "sideways range" situation.
Tokyo Time Strategy
The fundamentals forecast is unchanged, with a bullish USD bias. Today, there's a BoJ monetary policy meeting announcement. The consensus is for the status quo, but it's worth paying attention to any discussion about the timing of negative interest rate removal.
Today's USD/JPY Forecast
The start of Tokyo time is envisioned as a "sideways range". There's a BoJ meeting announcement from 11 AM, so it seems likely to be a wait-and-see situation with little major price movement until then, envisioning a range.
The range's upper limit is around 148.25 to 148.30 yen, the middle is around 148.00 yen, and the lower limit is around 147.70 to 147.60 yen.
Around 148.10 yen, 148.15 yen - will selling on rallies start around here and the price fall? If selling on rallies doesn't start, aim for around 148.25 to 148.30 yen, and if it exceeds that, up to around 148.40 yen, 148.50 yen.
If the price falls and breaks below around 148.00 yen, then aim for around 147.90 yen, 147.85 yen, 147.70 yen, and down to 147.60 yen. If the BoJ meeting results in a swing towards JPY strength and the price falls, then 147.35 yen, and 147.05 to 147.00 yen are the lower price points!
The BoJ meeting is almost certainly going to maintain the status quo, but if there's any mention of the removal of negative interest rates and it seems to be happening sooner, then expect a return to JPY strength. If there's nothing, then it seems likely to continue the trend of JPY weakness.
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