Daily Chart Shows Bullish Sentiment
Post-BOJ Meeting
On the daily chart, we saw some volatility
yesterday following the Bank of Japan meeting, ending with a long lower wick
bullish candlestick, indicating a persistent high settling price. Many might
interpret this as a sign of an upward trend, and the timing for breaking to new
highs is key.
For today, there's a slight chance of a dip
on the daily chart, possibly around the 148.00 mark. Will it drop to the +1σ
level at around 147.80 before rebounding? These lower support levels are worth
monitoring.
With prices hovering high, the outlook is
'sideways to bullish,' but it's worth watching for a pullback to stronger
support levels before entering a buy position.
4-Hour Chart Analysis: Golden Cross Hints
at Continued Strength
On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands
are slightly upward, and the 10EMA has just made a golden cross over the middle
line. If the price remains supported around the 10EMA (around 148.19) or middle
line (around 148.13), the outlook could be considered 'sideways to bullish.'
Though the daily chart suggests a potential drop, the 4-hour chart indicates it
may resist falling much.
Hourly Chart Insights: A Struggle for
Higher Ground
On the hourly chart, there was an attempt
to push to new highs during the New York session, but it failed to expand
upwards and started to decline. As of this morning, the market is near the
10EMA, but as we move into the 8 AM hour, the upside seems heavy, so the
immediate outlook is slightly 'sideways to bearish.'
However, even if it falls, we're likely to
see buying on the dip. Fibonacci retracement levels to watch are 38.2% at
around 148.05 and 50% at around 147.83.
Tokyo Session: A Strategic Play Amidst
Market Indecision
Fundamental forecast: The outcome of the
Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting has led to a continuation of negative
interest rates, which has pushed the USD/JPY pair higher. After the rise, we
saw some selling on the rebound, resulting in a range-bound market. Comments
from Governor Ueda were positive on moving away from negative interest rates,
leading to a stronger yen and a subsequent drop. The market rebounded solidly
and recovered fully, leading to a state of indecision.
Today's USD/JPY Forecast: A Mixed Bag
While the daily and 4-hour charts suggest a
'sideways to bullish' stance, the hourly chart and shorter timeframes indicate
that the topside looks heavy and could dip. We're looking to see where the
decline stops and a rise begins.
There was a drop before 8:30 AM, so first,
watch for support around the 148.20 to 18 area, indicated by the 4-hour chart's
10EMA, and perhaps a further dip to around 148.08 to 05, and see if it
stabilizes or rebounds from there.
If it breaks below 148.00, then watch for a
halt in the decline around 147.90 or between 147.83 to 80.
Intraday Strategy: Readying for Resistance
or Rebound
The hourly chart suggests the possibility
of a range forming. Considering the yen's strength post-BOJ meeting, Tokyo
traders may lean towards selling, so if the rebound is weak at lower points,
consider exiting.
If the market rises from these lower
points, watch for resistance around 148.30 to 35. If it breaks above, look for
further resistance at 148.50 to 53, around 148.60, and up to 148.68 to 70. Be
wary of a potential triple top and selling on the rebound. As usual, Tokyo time
might see a range, and if there's a move to new highs, it may happen during New
York hours.
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