[Daily Chart]
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[4-hour Chart]
Tokyo Time Strategy
Predicted fundamentals indicate a dominance of selling USD, with a drop to around 146 yen, followed by a rebound. Still, there's a downward trend and resistance overhead, watch out!
Daily Chart
Yesterday we saw a drop to around 146.25, which is the -2σ of Bollinger Bands, followed by a rebound. The trend continued during NY hours, with a selling end at the mid-146 range, followed by a buying dominance, confirming a lower wick bullish candlestick. Now we are still in a downtrend, so careful observations are crucial. We are still testing the rebound within the downtrend, so if it feels like the drop has started, watch for a bit before going long. If it appears to be reversing, can you go long? The basic perspective is "flat to downside," so it might be good to go for selling on rallies only when it seems dominant.
4 Hours Chart
We see resistance overhead after a rise to the middle line, confirming a bearish candlestick, and the current candlestick is heavy overhead below the 10EMA. If 147.15 seems like a resistance line, the "flat to downside" view takes precedence. If it exceeds 147.33, that seems like a resistance line and if it can surpass it, we might target the latter half of the 147 range.
60 Minutes Chart
It is likely that buyers will enter at the support points if it drops due to moving average lines and Bollinger Bands pointing upward. There is also a triangle consolidation, so even if it drops momentarily (in Tokyo time), a ‘heavy decline’ scenario seems unlikely, leaning instead towards "range from a bullish perspective."
USD/JPY forecast for today
Currently, it seems like it's slowly headed downwards but also looks like it's resisting dropping too much. However, as the upper limbs are not in an uptrend, long positions also require caution.
In the daily chart, there's a rebound from -2σ of the Bollinger Bands and a lower wick bullish candlestick is confirmed. As there was a buying back trend during NY time last night, there’s a good chance of stronger support and a slow upward trend today if a buying back flow is established.
It seems that we may be aiming for the resistance point of the daily chart via an upward trend exceeding the middle line of the 4-hour chart at around 147.38. If exceeded, we’re likely to target around 147.50, 147.60, and 147.80-90.
Although it has risen at 8:30, if the overhead appears heavy and it starts dripping downward, breaking through around 147.05-00, then 145.95, 145.85, 145.65-60 yen are likely to be the targets, and beyond that, 146.40, 146.20 come into sight.
It seems to have stopped dropping for now, but don't forget we are in a downtrend! Tomorrow we have the ADP employment statistics too!