[Daily Chart]
[4-hour Chart]
Tokyo Time Strategy
Fundamental Forecast. Dominant dollar selling. The 10-year bond yield has also fallen to new lows. US Treasury yields are also likely to fall further on a weekly basis. The dollar is also selling off against the yen and is near recent lows. The dollar may test a recovery at the beginning of the week, but is it likely to target a new low somewhere?
Daily chart
A long negative line was confirmed on Friday, and today, it was also interesting to see if the low of 146.65, which was last Wednesday's low, would be renewed. It is likely to be a search for a lower price point to see how far it will fall today.
The low was renewed at 8:00 and fell to around 146.30, so it is likely that the pair will be searching for a lower point today.
4-hour chart
Bollinger bands are about to expand and the recent lows have been renewed, so the trend is "sideways to downside." On the 4-hour chart, the lower price points are around 146.00 and 145.90, but Bollinger bands are expanding, so do not go against the flow if selling intensifies. Be careful not to go against the flow if the sell-off intensifies!
60-minute chart
Bollinger Bands are expanding, and the price has fallen to around 146.30, where the -2σ is located, due to selling from the low.
USD/JPY forecast for today
The dollar is selling off on a fundamental basis, and the daily low has been renewed, so we should be careful about selling back.
Will it keep digging lower? Will there be a rebound when it reaches the lower price point? We want to attack cautiously, and since the basic idea is "sideways to downside," we want to attack with a return sale on the lower leg.
If the price falls below the -2σ of the daily Bollinger band, the price will probably rebound once around 146.20, 146.05 to 146.00, and 146.00, but if the rebound is weak, the price will likely fall to 145.00 even on a weekly basis. If the rebound is weak, the price is likely to fall to the 145.00 area on a weekly basis, so be careful.
If the price rebounds and exceeds the 146.60 area, it is likely to test the return once, to the 146.70 area, 146.80 area, 146.95 area, 147.00 to 147.00-05 area, and 147.15 area.
Maybe December will be a predominantly selling month!
USD/JPY, Today's Forecast Range
Up points, around 146.60, around 146.70, around 146.80, around 146.95, around 147.00 to 147.05, around 147.15
Lower price points, around 146.30, around 146.20, around 146.05 to 146.00, around 146.00, around 145.80 to 145.75, around 145.60, around 145.50, around 145.25, around 145.00