USD/JPY Today's Market Analysis
【Daily Chart】
【4-Hour Chart】
Tokyo Session Strategy
With interest rate policies becoming clear in the United States, the UK, and Europe, it feels like the future course is set!
Inflation seems to be abating, hinting at a trend toward interest rate cuts by various countries next year.
Attention is now on how far the Japanese will strengthen after calming from its previous depreciation.
During the December market, many large players have already gone on break, potentially leading to a sideways market movement until Christmas.
The key focus is whether the trend of selling dollars and the strengthening will continue.
Daily Chart
The overall trend on the daily chart is bearish, but since we saw a positive candlestick on the last Friday with a higher low, there’s a possibility that the market could stabilize, suggesting a slight bias toward a sideways or upward trajectory.
However, given the resistance encountered previously, any upward movement should be approached with caution—and be prepared to sell on the rebound if the price starts to dip after a rise.
4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart is forming an ascending triangle with higher lows, indicating a potential for an upward move.
However, if the price cannot firmly surpass the 10 EMA around 142.30 , it may be challenging to maintain a bullish outlook.
For now, we're looking at resistance around 142.30 on the high side and support around 142.00 on the low side.
A breakout in either direction should guide the next move.
A point of caution: If there is a breakout above, be aware that the price might climb towards 142.35 and potentially to the 142.40 to 142.45 range before being pushed back down.
It might be prudent to wait for the Tokyo market’s direction post 8:30 AM local time before making a definitive call.
60-Minute Chart
The Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart are flat, indicating a range-bound situation.
As of this morning, the price has rebounded from the middle line, hinting at a possible break above the upper limit.
By 8:00 AM, the price has risen to around 142.35 , but it didn't go further, indicating some selling pressure.
The key levels here are the upper limit at approximately 142.45 , the mid-point around 141.96 , and the lower limit at 141.55 to 141.45 .
Today’s USD/JPY Forecast
As of this morning, the higher timeframe suggests a 'sideways to upward' bias.
However, without the Tokyo market's input, the flow won't be firmly established.
Considering the downtrend on the daily chart and the 4-hour struggle to surpass the 10 EMA, it might be wise to take cautious long positions.
On the upside, if the price exceeds 142.30 to 142.35 around the 4-hour 10 EMA, the next significant resistance will be near 142.45 .
It's also important to monitor where the price stands by 11:00 AM when the 4-hour chart updates and whether it has crossed the 10 EMA.
If buying pressure intensifies and the price exceeds 142.45 , we could see moves towards 142.57 , the 142.65 to 142.70 range, then 142.80 , and possibly reaching the 4-hour middle line near 143.00 . If it climbs to these levels, consider the potential for a sell-off once the 4-hour chart updates.
On the downside, a break below 142.18 warrants caution, with further potential support at 142.10 , 142.00 , and 141.95 .
Below this, selling might dominate, targeting 141.80 to 141.75 , then 141.60 , followed by 141.50 and range bottom around 141.45 to 141.40 .
Personally, the tone seems to favor buying back at the moment, yet there’s a lack of factors to drive firm dollar purchases.
Should selling commence, I am inclined to focus on selling on a rebound.
For long positions, I’ll decide after gauging the response of the Tokyo market entrants.
USD/JPY Today's Forecasted Range
On the upside, key points are around 142.35 , 142.45 , 142.57 , 142.65 to 142.70 , 142.80 , and 143.00 .
On the downside, key points are around 142.18 , 142.10 , 142.00 , 141.95 , 141.80 to 141.75 , 141.60 , 141.50 , and 141.45 to 141.40 .
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