USD/JPY Today's Market Analysis
【Daily Chart】
【4-Hour Chart】
Tokyo Session Strategy
The daily chart shows resistance to upside movement and a congested state as we started the week on Monday, with the market waiting for the announcement of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision on Tuesday.
The reluctance to move lower suggests that dollar buying strength dominated during the European session, yet no strong buying momentum followed, indicating a slow upward trend within an overall downtrend - maintaining lows in a consolidation pattern.
Watch out for sudden price movements today, as the results of the BOJ meeting will begin to be released from 11 AM!
If the negative interest rate policy is lifted, we'll likely see dollar selling and a stronger yen, leading to a downturn.
However, if the termination of negative interest rates remains undecided, it might spur the opposite - dollar buying and a weaker yen, leading to a rise.
Daily Chart
Yesterday's chart showed resilience with an eventual bullish candle securing, seemingly carrying over Friday's momentum.
However, this is not indicative of strong dollar buying.
As of now, the price is above both the trend line and the 200-day moving average.
If support is sustained around 142.60 JPY, near the 200-day line, and 142.50 JPY at the trend line, the perspective is 'flat to bullish.
However, with the BOJ meeting announcement pending today, a shift towards a stronger yen is possible, thus a potential breakdown is also plausible.
Should the price rise, key resistances on the daily chart are approximately at 143.00 JPY, 143.16 JPY, between 143.50 and 143.60 JPY, and near 143.90 JPY.
4-Hour Chart
While there is a gradual ascending trend, the long duration of maintaining lows has squeezed the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that even if there is an ascent, the resistance will likely be significant.
Resistance points to watch are near 143.00 JPY and the recent high at 143.16 JPY.
If there's a downturn, support near 142.60 to 142.50 JPY will be crucial, below which a selling mode down to about 142.20 JPY may be anticipated.
60-Minute Chart
The Bollinger Bands and moving averages are indicating a 'flat to bullish' stance, particularly as the candlestick pattern at 7 AM rebounded off the middle line to form a lower wick bullish candle.
If the price exceeds around 142.85 JPY at the resistance trend line, we may see a temporary move upward.
However, the price appears to be caught in a symmetrical triangle, hence the 142.85 JPY area might prove to be a solid resistance, leading potentially to a decline.
Today’s USD/JPY Forecast
During Tokyo trading hours, the daily and 60-minute charts lean slightly 'flat to bullish,' suggesting a possible buying opportunity at dips.
Yet, the momentum for the dollar is weak, and the daily chart indicates a downtrend in maintaining lower consolidations, suggesting a likelihood of resumption in selling, making long positions challenging.
The 60-minute chart suggests a formation of a symmetrical triangle with an upper limit near 142.85 JPY, a middle around 142.65 JPY, and a lower limit near 142.50 JPY.
These points should be kept in mind, especially before the BOJ meeting announcement at 11 AM.
If the price climbs above 142.85 JPY, the following resistances near 143.00 JPY and 143.15 JPY should be considered, and even if these are surpassed, a retreat from around 143.25 JPY should be watched for potential selling.
In the event of a downturn, breaking below approximately 142.70 JPY down to the regions of 142.65 to 142.60 JPY, and 142.50 JPY could indicate a stand before potentially dropping further to around 142.40 JPY and 142.20 JPY.
Please note, this forecast is relevant only before the BOJ announcement.
The market can experience significant volatility post-release, and traders should exercise caution accordingly.
Also, today's Tokyo market might have thin trading volumes as it awaits the BOJ's policy decision.
So, rather than overreaching, focus on measured, strategic trades!
There will be enough opportunities after the announcement, so the key is to avoid major losses.
Stay cautious!
USD/JPY Today's Forecasted Range
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