USD/JPY Daily Chart Analysis
Bearish Continuation on Daily Chart
On the daily chart, a bearish candlestick was confirmed yesterday, marking two consecutive days of bearish candles at a high price range indicating that the upper levels are heavy. After a decline, the market rebounded firmly around the Bollinger Band +1σ at 149.50, suggesting support around the breakout point.
Flat to Bearish Outlook
Today, the outlook seems more "flat to bearish" rather than bullish, as even if there's a rise, the upside seems limited and prone to selling on rallies. With it being Friday, we might see closing sales, so pay attention to potential drops if it falls below the support at around 149.70 near +1σ, near the 10EMA at 149.50 to 149.45, down to around 149.00 and further to 148.90.
Upper Levels Resistance
Even if the price finds support at the lower levels and rises, around 150.00 and from 150.20 to 150.25, the resistance seems to become stronger.
USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Resistance After Breaking Middle Line
On the 4-hour chart, after breaking below the middle line, the area near the middle line has become a resistance, making the upper levels heavy. As of this morning, it is supported by the trend line at the support level, but the outlook remains "flat to bearish."
Focus on Bollinger Band -1σ
Attention is on whether it will find support around 149.70 near the Bollinger Band -1σ. With the possibility of breaking below the consolidating triangle pattern, the price looks like it could fall to around 149.50 and then to 149.30.
USD/JPY 
60-Minute Chart Analysis
Downward Trend on the 60-Minute Chart
On the 60-minute chart, with the Bollinger Bands and moving averages trending downward, the flow is "flat to bearish." Any rise is likely to meet resistance from around 149.95 near the 10EMA up to between 150.00 and 150.05.
Anticipating a Decline
Considering the 4-hour chart, the market seems poised for a decline, so the focus will be on whether the drop starts around 8:30. A further fall will depend on the selling by the Tokyo market participants!
Tokyo Session Strategy
Fundamentals Forecast
The fundamentals forecast suggests that yesterday during the Tokyo session, the market saw a corrective decline with a dominance of selling on rallies. Last night, U.S. retail sales figures significantly missed market expectations, leading to a drop in the dollar to around 149.50, followed by a bounce back over the 150.00 level, but the upside remained heavy, settling around 149.90. Selling on rallies is evident above the 150.00 level, indicating a weak situation for aggressive buying during the adjustment period.
Today's USD/JPY Forecast
Daily and 4-Hour Charts Indicate Bearishness
Based on the daily chart, with two confirmed bearish candles at the high price level and support at +1σ (around 149.70) and the 10EMA (around 149.50), the 4-hour chart suggests a bearish outlook with a potential break below the trend line, which could lead to a breach below last night's low.
Tokyo Session: Flat to Bearish
For now, the Tokyo session seems to be "flat to bearish," with a focus on selling on rallies. After a decline, it will be important to see where the market finds support and settles into a sideways range.
Key Support Levels to Watch
If the price drops below around 149.85, watch for potential support at around 149.70 and 149.50 – where the daily chart's 10EMA is located – to see if it holds. If the rebound is weak, the market may enter a slow decline. Keep an eye on the 4-hour chart's -2σ around 149.30, 149.20, and also from 149.05 to 149.00.
Caution Against Selling on Rallies
Additionally, be cautious of selling on rallies even if the market rises and be wary of buying dips when the price starts to fall.
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