USD/JPY Daily Chart Analysis
Bearish Candle Confirmed with Powell's Influence
On the daily chart, yesterday saw the U.S. ADP Employment report fall short of market expectations, leading to a sell-off in the dollar. However, comments from Fed Chair Powell triggered a rebound, and despite the presence of a lower shadow, a bearish candle has been confirmed.
Potential Recovery Attempts
Today started above the upward middle line, so if it finds support around the 146.80 to 146.75 range, we might see an attempt at a rally. If a recovery does take place, look for resistance near 147.00 and the 10EMA at around 147.30 as potential upside targets.
Key Points for Caution
If the middle line is breached, caution is advised as we could see a drop to the 146.40 area, or even down to around 146.00. Overall, there's a bias towards yen strengthening, so even if there's a rise, look out for potential selling on the rebound.
USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Bollinger Bands Expansion and Rebound
On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are widely expanding. After hitting a new low, the price bounced back, with the previous candlestick showing a long lower shadow and a bullish close, currently sitting above the -2σ line.
Resistance Zones Ahead
However, even if the price rises, there's resistance at around 147.10 and between 147.20 to 147.23, so be cautious of selling at these higher points.
USD/JPY 60-Minute Chart Analysis
Immediate Price Action Post-EMA
Looking at the 60-minute chart, as of 8 AM, the price confirmed below the 10EMA and initially fell. Will it stop declining or continue to drop? Will it respect the lower points of the daily and 4-hour charts?
Recovery Possibilities and Resistance
If it surpasses the 10EMA around 146.85, we might see an attempt at recovery. If the price struggles to rise past this point, we could be looking at a "sideways to downward" bias.
Tokyo Session Strategy
Market Reaction to U.S. ADP Report and FOMC
Fundamental forecast: Yesterday during the day, the upper range felt heavy with a downward slant. Following the Fed's FOMC meeting, comments from Chair Powell pushed back expectations of an early rate cut, prompting a dollar buy-in and a recovery to around 147.40.
Today's USD/JPY Forecast
Evaluating the Impact of Fed's Comments
Fundamentally, there seemed to be a shift towards a stronger yen, but Fed comments have slightly swung it back to a weaker yen, making it a challenging situation to assess.
Technical Sentiments and Trading Strategy
Technically, as the price has started to break from its high perch, the overall sentiment is a "sideways to downward" bias with a downward outlook. Key lower points will be around the daily middle line of 146.80 to 146.75, with further support or drop levels to watch for if breached.
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