USD/JPY Today's Market Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis for USD/JPY
The daily chart for USD/JPY reveals bearish candles with long upper shadows on both Thursday and Friday. The weekly chart is positioned below the 10 EMA, suggesting potential resistance near 145.00 and 145.10. This could lead to a "flat to bearish" outlook.
The market is currently trending in the 144.00s, indicating a possible temporary rise. However, sellers might return at the upper price points. Be aware, the daily chart's 10 EMA and middle line are trending upwards. If there's resistance to falling prices, a buying-on-dips scenario could occur, shifting the market back to a rise.
Key resistance line to watch is the weekly chart's 10 EMA (around 145.10). Upper price points to monitor include: near 145.00, 145.10, 145.25 to 145.30, and 145.50 to 145.55. Lower price points include: near 144.80, 144.50, 144.05 to 144.00, and 143.70 to 143.60.
4-Hour Chart Analysis for USD/JPY
The 4-hour chart shows a bearish candle with higher lows, making the analysis complex. However, the 10 EMA is experiencing a death cross and the MACD is entering the negative zone, suggesting an upward move could face selling pressure.
As of 8 AM, the market is rising, focusing on the 10 EMA near 145.10 as a resistance point. If it holds, we maintain a "flat to bearish" bias. A break of the Bollinger Band's -1σ near 144.80 could signal a sell mode transition.
60-Minute Chart Analysis for USD/JPY
The 60-minute chart displays a sideways Bollinger Band, possibly indicating a triangular consolidation. There's resistance from the middle lines and various moving averages. However, the positive candle confirmed in the 7 AM timeframe, and climbing above the 10 EMA suggests a "flat to bullish" short-term outlook.
Watch for resistance between 145.10 to 145.13 and 145.20 to 145.25, and stay alert for potential selling after any rise.
Tokyo Session Strategy and Fundamental Forecast
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) underscores persistent inflationary pressure, fueling dollar purchases. Statements suggest that "it may be too premature for the FRB to lower policy rates in March"—yet, no sign shows the US FRB will alter the anticipated March rate cut.
Despite this, the USD/JPY pair remains resilient. A lower-than-expected U.S. PPI reading triggered dollar selling, which fell to around EMA 10 before rebounding and closing at late 144. Will the yen strengthen, or will the pair maintain its resilience?
Today's USD/JPY Forecast
The pair opened higher this morning, recovering the 145 region with the 60-minute chart suggesting a steady base above the 10 EMA, tipping towards a "slightly bullish" bias. However, the 10 EMA on the weekly chart remains near 145.00 to 145.10, hinting that resistance could develop around 145.10 to 145.13, thus "flat to bearish" remains a possibility.
The market response from Tokyo traders past 8:30 or 9 AM might set the tone—will selling at upper price points drive prices down, or will an ascent past the current highs indicate a bullish turn? The situation warrants close monitoring.
If the 145 range is maintained and resistance forms near 145.10 to 145.13, a resumption of selling could push below 145, targeting areas like around 144.80 and 144.60. Should the pair surpass 145.13, we might anticipate a retracement test with targets around 145.23 and 145.30 to 145.35.
The U.S. market is closed tonight, so expect subdued intraday movements. There's also a chance that major price swings may not occur.
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